Ray Dalio is the founder of the world's largest and best-performing hedge fund in 2011, Bridgewater Associates. The letter was created October 31, 2008 and updated March, 2012:
The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine, yet it is not well understood. I wrote this paper to describe how I believe it works. My description is not the same as conventional economists' descriptions so you should decide for yourself whether or not what I'm saying makes sense. I will start with the simple things and build up, so please bear with me. I believe that you will be able to understand and assess my description if we patiently go through it.
How the Economic Machine Works: "A Transactions-Based Approach"
An economy is simply the sum of the transactions made and a transaction is a simple thing. A transaction consists of the buyer giving money (or credit) to a seller and the seller giving a good, a service or a financial asset to the buyer in exchange. A market consists of all the buyers and sellers making exchanges for the same things ��e.g., the wheat market consists of different people making different transactions for different reasons over time. An economy consists of all of the transactions in all of its markets. So, while seemingly complex, an economy is really just a zillion simple things working together, which makes it look more complex than it really is.
Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. operates as a financial services holding company in Argentina. The company offers financial products and services, including collection and payment services, commercial credit cards, direct payroll deposits, capital market alternatives, foreign trade solutions, and corporate e-banking solutions; corporate debt transactions and securitization transactions; and e-collection and payment solutions to various agencies, municipalities, and universities. It also provides a range of financial products and services, such as transactions, loans, and investments; and checking and savings accounts, credit and debit cards, payroll direct deposits, insurance, and retirement and pension payments. In addition, the company offers mutual funds and in brokerage services; manages positions in foreign currency and government securities; acts as an intermediary and distributes financial instruments for institutional investors, corporate customers, and individuals; and enables customers to buy and sell securities on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. Further, it provides life insurance products, including employee benefit plans and credit related insurance; and property and casualty insurance products, such as home and ATM theft insurance. As of December 31, 2012, the company operated 257 full service banking branches and 1,676 ATMs and self-service terminals. Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. was founded in 1905 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Federico Zaldua]
Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL), which was once owned by Rob Citrone's hedge fund Discovery Capital Management, owns one of Argentina's biggest private banks by deposits and the fastest growing within the banks that count with national presence. As a matter of fact, according to management, "the bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 9.10% growing 56 basis points from a year before and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 8.98% growing 28 basis points in the year."
Top 10 Performing Companies To Own For 2015: Six Flags Entertainment Corporation New(SIX)
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation owns and operates regional theme, water, and zoological parks. The company?s parks offers various selection of state-of-the-art and traditional thrill rides, water attractions, themed areas, concerts and shows, restaurants, game venues, and retail outlets. It owns and operates 19 parks, including 17 parks in the United States; 1 park in Mexico City, Mexico; and 1 park in Montreal, Canada. The company was formerly known as Six Flags, Inc. and changed its name to Six Flags Entertainment Corporation in April 2010. Six Flags Entertainment Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Grand Prairie, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Rick Munarriz]
Six Flags (NYSE: SIX ) hit an all-time high yesterday, a day after posting better-than-expected quarterly results in a blowout performance. Revenue climbed 32% to $87.5 million, fueled by a 41% spike in attendance. The regional amusement park operator's net loss narrowed to $1.23 a share. Analysts were buckled in, braced for a deficit of $1.46 a share on $68.2 million in revenue.
- [By Marc Bastow]
Entertainment theme park operator Six Flags (SIX) raised its quarterly dividend 4.4% to 47 cents per share, payable on Dec. 9 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 25.
SIX Dividend Yield: 5.14%
- [By Matt Egan]
There are also a long line of non-tech consumer companies slated to release results this week like Chipotle (CMG), Coca-Cola, Hasbro (HAS), McDonald's and Six Flags (SIX). An update on the pivotal auto market is also on tap in the form of earnings reports from both Ford (F) and General Motors.
Top 10 Performing Companies To Own For 2015: James Hardie Industries SE (JHX)
James Hardie Industries plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells fiber cement products and systems for interior and exterior building construction applications primarily in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, and Europe. Its products principally include fiber cement interior linings, exterior siding products, and related accessories products. The company offers fiber cement products with various patterned profiles and surface finishes for a range of applications, including external siding and soffit lining, internal linings, facades, floor and tile underlay, lattice, fencing, decorative columns, flooring, and ceiling applications; and manufactures and sells fiber reinforced concrete pipes. Its products are used in various markets, such as new residential construction, which include single and multi-family housing; manufactured housing that comprise mobile and pre-fabricated homes; repair and remodeling; and various commerc ial and industrial applications, such as stores, warehouses, offices, hotels, motels, schools, libraries, museums, dormitories, hospitals, detention facilities, religious buildings, and gymnasiums. The company markets its fiber cement products and systems under various Hardie brand names, such as HardieBacker; and other brand names, such as Artisan Lap and Artisan Accent Trim by James Hardie, Cemplank and Prevail siding, Scyon, and Stria siding. The company sells its products directly, as well as through distributors, large home center retailers, small to medium size dealer outlets, and specialist distributors to dealers or lumber yards, consumers, builders, real estate developers, and distributor/hardware stores. James Hardie Industries plc was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dublin, the Republic of Ireland.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Ian Sayson]
Exporters dropped. Samsung Electronics slipped 2.9 percent to 1.329 million won in Seoul. Canon Inc., the world�� biggest camera maker, fell 1.1 percent to 3,215 yen in Tokyo. James Hardie Industries SE (JHX), a building materials supplier that gets about 70 percent of sales from the U.S., tumbled 2.8 percent to A$9.37 in Sydney.
Top 10 Performing Companies To Own For 2015: Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD)
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. provides atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, performance materials, equipment, and services worldwide. The company?s Merchant Gases segment sells atmospheric gases, such as oxygen, nitrogen, and argon; process gases, including hydrogen and helium; and medical and specialty gases for the metal, glass, chemical processing, food processing, healthcare, steel, general manufacturing, and petroleum and natural gas industries. This segment also offers respiratory therapies, home medical equipment, and infusion services primarily in Europe. Its Tonnage Gases segment provides hydrogen, carbon monoxide, nitrogen, oxygen, and syngas to the energy production and refining, chemical, and metallurgical industries; and produces dinitrotoluene used in the manufacture of a precursor of polyurethane foam. The company?s Electronics and Performance Materials segment offers nitrogen trifluoride, silane, arsine, phosphine, white ammonia, silicon tetra fluoride, carbon tetrafluoride, hexafluoromethane, critical etch gases, and tungsten hexafluoride; and tonnage gases, specialty chemicals, and services and equipment for the manufacture of silicon and compound semiconductors, thin film transistor liquid crystal displays, and photovoltaic devices. This segment also provides performance materials for a range of products, including coatings, inks, adhesives, civil engineering, personal care, institutional and industrial cleaning, mining, oil refining, and polyurethanes. Its Equipment and Energy segment designs and manufactures cryogenic equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon recovery and purification, natural gas liquefaction, and helium distribution; and offers plant design, engineering, procurement, and construction management services for the chemical and petrochemical manufacturing, oil and gas recovery and processing, and steel and primary metals processing industries. The company was founded in 1940 and is based in All entown, Pennsylvania.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Rich Smith]
Maybe the world is running out of helium. Maybe it isn't. But global leader in helium production Air Products (NYSE: APD ) isn't taking any chances.
- [By Marshall Hargrave]
Icahn has been the talk of the activist circle of late, overshadowing some other notable activist campaigns. It appears that a combination of Ackman's own recent shortcomings and Icahn's high-profile Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) investment has overshadowed Ackman's activist bet on the less-than-sexy industrial space. Since Ackman announced his 9.8% ownership of Air Products (NYSE: APD) at the end of July, the stock is relatively flat.
- [By David Smith]
According to�Air Products and Chemicals (NYSE: APD ) , while the use of nitrogen is about 15% more expensive than hydraulic fracturing, that difference is largely offset by an 11% increase in the estimated ultimate recovery of natural gas. Further, amid spreading drought conditions across much of the U.S., along with increasing requirements that drillers treat, recycle, and reuse flowback water, the use of nitrogen in fracking is surging.
- [By Chuck Saletta]
Air Products & Chemicals (NYSE: APD ) is a selection for the real-money Inflation-Protected Income Growth portfolio. Like any investment, it needs to be reviewed from time to time to see if it's still worth owning. In the brief video below, portfolio manager Chuck Saletta reviews its valuation, balance sheet, and dividends, and decides whether to hold on to the stock or let it go.
Top 10 Performing Companies To Own For 2015: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Joy Global have gained 3.9% to $64.10 at 3:31 p.m. today, and it’s given a boost to Caterpillar (CAT), which has risen 1.2% to $108.26, and Manitowoc (MTW), which is up 2.2% at $29.36.
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Stocks failed to follow through on yesterday’s gains as lukewarm economic data kept the market running in place. Goldman Sachs (GS), Boeing (BA), JPMorgan Chase�(JPM), Caterpillar (CAT) and United Health (UNH) fell.
- [By Dan Caplinger]
6. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) posted much uglier numbers yesterday, with a 16% drop in revenue driving a much larger 43% decline in earnings per share. Cutting its full-year earnings guidance by $0.50 to $6.50 took its toll on the stock, and further weakness today brought Caterpillar's post-earnings share-price drop to 4%. As long as commodity prices remain subdued and China doesn't heat up with greater levels of construction activity, Caterpillar will likely remain down.
Top 10 Performing Companies To Own For 2015: Vitacost.com Inc (VITC)
Vitacost.com, Inc. (Vitacost), incorporated in May 20, 1994, is an online retailer of health and wellness products, including dietary supplements such as vitamins, minerals, herbs and other botanicals, amino acids and metabolites, as well as cosmetics, natural personal care products, pet products, sports nutrition and health foods. The Company sells these products directly to consumers primarily through its Website, www.vitacost.com. It offers its customers the selection of healthy living products. It offers its customers a selection of approximately 40,000 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs), from over 2,000 third-party brands, such as New Chapter, Nature�� Way, Twinlab, Source Naturals, Jarrow Formulas, Jason, Desert Essence, Atkins, Bob�� Red Mill, BSN, Optimum Nutrition, USP Labs and MuscleTech in addition to its own brands: Vitacost, Cosmeceutical Sciences Institute (CSI), Best of All, and Smart Basics. As of December 31, 2012, the Company had approximately 2.1 million customers.
The Company offers products in a range of potency levels and dosage forms, such as tablets, capsules, vegi-capsules, softgels, gelcaps, liquids and powders. It offers products that encompass four main categories: Vitamins, Minerals, Herbs and Supplements; Sports Nutrition; Beauty; and Natural and Organic Food.
Vitamins, Minerals, Herbs and Supplements (VMHS)
VMHS products are taken to maintain or improve health and address specific health conditions. In its dietary supplements category, the Company offers its offer its Vitacost branded products as well as third-party brands such as Nature�� Way, Twinlab, Jarrow, Carlson and Rainbow Light. Vitamin and mineral products include multi-vitamins, lettered vitamins, such as Vitamin A, C, D, E and B-complex, along with minerals such as calcium, magnesium, chromium and zinc.
Herbal products include whole herbs, standardized extracts, herb combination formulas and teas. Supplements include essential fatty acids, probiotics, anti-o! xidants, phytonutrients and condition-specific formulas.
Sports Nutrition
Sports nutrition products are used in conjunction with cardiovascular conditioning, weight training and sports activities. Major categories in sports nutrition include protein and weight gain powders, meal replacements, nutrition bars, sport drinks and pre and post-workout supplements. The Company offers bodybuilding and sports products from third parties, such as Optimum Nutrition, CytoSport and BSN as well as our Vitacost branded sports nutrition products.
Beauty
Natural care products consist of a variety of natural products for skin, body, hair and oral health. The Company offers hundreds of natural personal-care products from companies, such as JASON, and Kiss My Face, as well as its CSI-branded products. These products appeal to allergen-conscious and environmentally-conscious consumers seeking products that are made without harsh chemicals and additives.
Natural and Organic Food
Natural and organic food products consist of organic and specialty products such as organic peanut butter, gluten free foods and low mercury tuna and salmon. The Company offers third-party brands, such as Kashi, Eden Foods and Amy�� Organic, as well as its Best of All natural food products.
Under its Vitacost brand, the Company offers over 900 products including multivitamins, minerals, herbs, amino acids, anti-oxidants and others. Under its CSI brand, it markets and sells health and beauty products such as facial cleanser, facial and body moisturizing creams and lotions, and other beauty and skincare products. Under its Best of All brand, it markets and sells organic food products such as banana chips, trail mix, almonds, cashews and more. Under its Smart Basics brand, it markets and sells organic fruit juices and extracts and related dietary supplements. Under its Walker Diet brand, it markets and sells low carb powders used to assist in weight loss and ! managemen! t.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Seth Jayson]
Margins matter. The more Vitacost.com (Nasdaq: VITC ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Vitacost.com's competitive position could be.
Top 10 Performing Companies To Own For 2015: Mettler-Toledo International Inc. (MTD)
Mettler-Toledo International Inc. supplies precision instruments and services worldwide. The company operates in five segments: U.S. Operations, Swiss Operations, Western European Operations, Chinese Operations, and Other. It offers weighing instruments for use in laboratory, industrial, packaging, logistics, and food retailing applications; analytical instruments for use in life science; automated chemistry solutions used in drug and chemical compound discovery and development; and metal detection and other end-of-line inspection systems used in production and packaging for food, pharmaceutical, and other industries. Its laboratory instruments include laboratory balances, pipettes, titrators, thermal analysis systems, and other analytical instruments comprising pH meters, density and refractometry instruments, moisture analyzers, as well as laboratory software, automated chemistry solutions, and process analytic instruments. The company�s industrial solutions comprise in dustrial weighing instruments, industrial terminals, automatic identification and data capture solutions, vehicle scale systems, industrial software, and product inspection systems. Its retail solutions consist of multiple weighing and food labeling solutions, such as stand-alone scales, and networked scales and software for handling fresh goods, such as meats, vegetables, fruits, and cheeses. The company serves the life science industry covering pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and independent research organizations; food and beverage producers; food retailers; chemical, specialty chemical, and cosmetics companies; transportation and logistics, metals, and electronics industries; and the academic community. It markets its products through its direct sales force, as well as through indirect distribution channels. Mettler-Toledo International Inc. was founded in 1991 and is based in Columbus, Ohio.
Advisors' Opinion: - [By Seth Jayson]
Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Mettler-Toledo International (NYSE: MTD ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.
Bloomberg