Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Q3 Earnings Preview: What To Watch?

Pharma giant Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is expected to release its third-quarter financial results on Oct.29 and will host a conference call on the same day at at 10 a.m. EDT to discuss the operating performance and outlook.

New York-based Pfizer is expected to earn 56 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. In the same period last year, it earned 53 cents a share.

Earnings of Pfizer, one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world, have beat thee street's view twice in the past four quarters. The consensus estimate has increased by a penny in the past 90 days with three analysts raising their earnings estimate in the last month.

Sales for the July to September period are estimated to fall 9,1 percent to $12.70 billion from $13.98 billion in the year-ago quarter. The sales could be weighed due to the loss of patent exclusivity of certain key drugs and forex headwinds.

"We expect revenue FX headwind of 1.5% primarily because of the weaker yen (-20% y/y) partly offset by the stronger euro (+6% y/y). However, we could see some upside to revenues because of bulky government purchases of Prevnar," BMO Capital Markets analyst Alex Arfaei wrote in a note to clients.

During the quarter, Pfizer has agreed to provide additional doses of Prevnar, the company's 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, for use in infants and young children to help protect against pneumococcal disease in the world's poorest countries under the terms of the Advance Market Commitment (AMC). The company also recently got the European approval for label update regarding the use of Prevnar 13 in certain high-risk populations.

Other areas of focus will likely be on the sales of Xeljanz, which is approved for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Although, the drug still needed to be approved in Europe. Late July, The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has confirmed its earlier opinion to recommend against ! approval of Xeljanz for the treatment of adult patients with moderate-to-severe active RA. After re-examination of the application as requested by Pfizer, the CHMP is of the opinion that Xelhanz does not demonstrate a favorable benefit:risk profile.

While the CHMP considered treatment with Xeljanz resulted in reduction in the signs and symptoms of RA and improvement in the physical function of patients, it has outstanding concerns on safety, including serious infections.

Investors would be eager to know the strategy of the company to get this drug in Europe. Market analysts expect the drug to fetch at least $2 billion estimate in 2020 sales and Europe could account for $500 million of that estimate.

The market is looking for the impact on share-count (which could be lower) because of the full impact of the Zoetis split and ongoing buybacks. The share-count has a bearing on EPS.

The Street would also focus on any update on 2013 outlook. For 2013, Pfizer still sees adjusted earnings per share of $2.10 to $2.20, and revenues in the range of $50.8 billion to $52.8 billion. Analysts project earnings of $2.16 a share, on $51.45 billion of revenues for 2013.

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"We expect Pfizer to narrow its 2013 revenue guidance to the lower half of the current range, e.g. $50.8-$51.8B, and finish the year at the top-end. However, current EPS guidance of $2.10-$2.20 is well within reach, and we expect Pfizer to finish the year at the top half," Arfaei noted.

Other key things to focus on the call include comments over the results from the Prevnar CAPiTA study and the phase-2 Palbociclib trial in breast cancer, both multi-billion opportunities with high probabilities of success, and internal segment reporting of the value and innovative businesses as of the first quarter 2014.

For the second quarter, Pfizer's net profit attributable to the company surged t! o $14.10 ! billion or $1.98 a share from $3.25 billion or 43 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings per share were 56 cents. The firm's quarterly revenues totaled $12.97 billion, down 7 percent from last year's $13.97 billion.

Pfizer shares, which trade 13 times its 2014 consensus earnings view, are up 3 percent since the last quarterly report. They have gained 18 percent this year and traded between $23.55 and $31.15 during the past 52-weeks.

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