Canadian Stocks For 2016: November 2013

Monday, November 25, 2013

Hot Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now

With shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) trading around $498, is Apple an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let�� analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Apple designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, portable digital music players, and a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, third-party digital content, and applications. The company�� products and services include the iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a variety of accessory, service, and support offerings. Apple also delivers digital content and applications through its iTunes, App, iBook, and Mac App stores.

Apple has grabbed the attention of activist investor Carl Icahn, who revealed yesterday via Twitter that he has a $1.5 billion stake in the company. Icahn said in an interview cited by the Wall Street Journal that he believes Apple�� stock is highly undervalued and the company should begin a share buyback as soon as possible. Icahn believes the stock is worth $625 a share.

Hot Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Maxx Chatsko]
Industry ties
The company's management team has deep roots in the energy industry, specifically in oilfield services. President and CEO Gary Kolstad spent 21 years at Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) before joining CARBO, while Don Conkle, vice president of marketing and sales, spent 26 years at the same firm. No wonder Schlumberger is one of the top two customers for this proppant manufacturer. Both served in various roles at the company and are well versed in the ebbs and flows of the energy industry, which should serve investors well through the rocky environment of falling natural gas drilling activity.

Hot Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Oliver Pursche]
European large-cap pharmaceuticals like Novartis (NVS) �and Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) �count amongst some of our favorite stocks right now, as do U.S. multinationals that are growing revenue and margins in Asia ��Tupperware (TUP) �is a shining example. Stay away from utilities and energy stocks, as they are likely to be the laggards over the next year.
[By John Udovich]
Everyone is familiar with�the Tupperware brand from�consumer products stock Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE: TUP) and you are probably familiar with the brands�of mid cap stock Jarden Corp (NYSE: JAH) along with small cap stocks Libbey Inc (NYSEMKT: LBY) and Lifetime Brands Inc (NASDAQ: LCUT); but what about the stocks themselves? Chances are, their brands or products are right under your nose at home and you probably don�� know anything about the mid cap or small cap stock behind them.
[By Monica Gerson]
Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $623.34 million.

Varian Medical Systems (NYSE: VAR) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $1.12 per share on revenue of $779.02 million.

Top 5 Value Companies For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Ben Eisen]
Perpetually struggling department store J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) �said it expects a sales boost this holiday season as it returns to a promotional strategy. But for the most part, retailers including Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) �, GameStop Corp. (GME) � and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) � gave dour outlooks in their earnings reports.

Hot Undervalued Stocks To Own Right Now: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Jeremy Bowman]
Two industrial powerhouses on the Dow delivered earnings today. First, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) shares finished down 2.4% after missing estimates as many had expected. The slowdown in Chinese construction has hurt demand for materials and thus mining equipment, a key component of Caterpillar's business. The world's largest maker of earth-moving equipment said profits fell 43% as EPS came in at $1.45, down from $2.54 a year ago, and worse than estimates at $1.69. Revenue dropped 15.8% to $14.6 billion, below expectations of $15.1 billion. Management promised cost-cutting to cope with the decrease in demand, and cut its full-year EPS outlook from $7 to $6.50.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Tech Not Pizza, Helps Domino's Crush Competitors

Domino's might not be the first place that comes to mind for the best slice in town but the retail chain is growing a lot faster than you might think.

Today the company said revenue was up 6.9% in the third quarter to $404 million while net income jumped 18% to $30.6 million.

But the real impressive story for Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza is its long term strategy. You might recall back in 2009 its CEO famously acknowledged in a commercial that Domino's pizza doesn't taste good. He apologized for its poor ingredients and promised to improve the recipe.

His honesty worked; domestic same store sales grew 14.3% the following quarter. Since January 2010, shares of Domino's have been crushing the competition rising 750% while Papa John's grew 193%, Pizza Hut owner YUM! brands YUM! brands is up 93% and McDonalds 51%.

The story is the same in 2013 with Domino's shares up a whopping 51% while Yum is flat for the year. Papa John's shares up 30% and McDonald's McDonald's is up 6% so far this year.

But it's not just the improved ingredients in Domino's pizzas that have boosted the company. They key ingredient for its recent success has been investments have in digital and mobile where it aims to make its faster and easier for customers to place and track orders. This is where it's betting it can win more customers.

Domino's research shows customers buy pizza 21 times each year; it gets six or seven of those orders and a similar amount might go to Pizza Hut. "Loyalty is not strong, we think – that's why we are so focused on the digital because we think it's one of the fronts that will enhance our loyalty," CFO Michael Lawton said last month.

The company has mobile ordering apps to cover about 95% of smartphones, and says it generates $2 billion in global digital sales per year of which 35% is driven by mobile. CEO Patrick Doyle told analysts today that both customer retention and frequency is higher as a result of its digital ordering system.

Last month Domino's launched a "Pizza Profiles" campaign allowing customers who order line to save their information and reorder their favorite order in as little as five clicks, or about 30 seconds.

Another big part of Domino's success story: It's growing like crazy overseas.

Consider this, Domino's locations are opening faster than Starbucks Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts, Yum! Brands Yum! Brands and McDonald's since 2008. International store growth is 43% for the pizza chain compared to 35% for Starbucks and 13% at McDonald's.

Today there are more Domino's stores overseas, 5,508, (up from 3,469 in 2007) than here at home in the US where there are 4,543 store.

That trend will likely continue as Domino's has now reported 79 quarters of same store sales growth overseas. The pizza chain says there's potential to add 2,700 new stores in its Top 10 international markets alone with the UK and India leading the charge.

Domino's says it's biggest growth hurdle overseas is training people fast enough to get them ready to open their next store.

Says Lawton, "The bigger base we get the more stores we can open. So places like Turkey and India where we're experiencing great growth, our limitation been about people and the bigger we get you will continue to see these hopefully ramp up."

Saturday, November 23, 2013

If credit runs out, what bills will Treasury pay?

If Congress doesn't master the trick of raising the debt ceiling, then the day after Halloween will be no treat.

Nov. 1 is looming as the critical day when the Treasury Department may not have the money to meet all its commitments if officials don't boost the $16.7 trillion limit on federal indebtedness, according to reports by Goldman Sachs and the Bipartisan Policy Center.

The government is likely to have enough cash to make a $5.9 billion interest payment due on Oct. 31, but the $43 million of Social Security and Medicare payments due the next day, plus billions for Supplemental Security Income payments and payroll for soldiers and government workers, will break the bank, said Steve Bell, director of economic studies at the BPC.

The Treasury is expected to have about $30 billion in cash on hand at Oct. 17, the date Treasury has said the debt ceiling is likely to be reached.

"A number of large payments totaling about $60 billion are due Nov. 1, and it appears very unlikely the Treasury would be able to make all the payments scheduled for that day absent an increase in the debt ceiling,'' Goldman economists Alec Phillips and Kris Dawsey wrote over the weekend.

In recent days, opponents of raising the debt ceiling have argued that the nation can avoid a default by paying interest on the debt before the government pays for entitlement spending and routine operations.

President Obama rejected that idea in a press conference Tuesday.

"We've got a lot of other obligations" in addition to making interest payments, Obama said, citing senior citizens and veterans counting on their benefits checks and to companies that do business with the government.

"What's also true is if the markets are seeing that we're not paying all our bills on time that will affect our creditworthiness even if some people are being paid on time," he said.

A strategy of making only interest payments would be short-lived anyway, said Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

Even if the government made its Nov. 1 payments, a $30.9 billion interest payment due Nov. 15 looms after it, Zandi said. Including that payment. Washington is likely to have a cash shortfall between $60 billion and $70 billion from Oct. 17 until Nov. 15, he said.

"If they don't prioritize payments there's no way they make that payment on time,'' Zandi said.

And "prioritization,'' Washington's newes

t buzzword, is much easier said than done, Bell said.

The government processes between 3 million and 5 million checks each day, he said. Nearly all of them are produced by machine, or the payments are made electronically, as computers at Treasury communicate with systems at agencies like Social Security that are actually spending the money.

Deciding to make some payments and withhold others would require on-the-fly reprogramming of information systems throughout the government within days, said Bell, a former staff director of the Senate Budget Committee. It would also mean a conscious decision to skip Social Security and veterans' benefits or not pay soldiers and workers,he added.

"They're not the most up-to-date computers in the world,'' Bell said. ``You just can't do it.''

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Financials slip, Wells Fargo sued over mortgages

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Financial stocks slipped on Wednesday as private-sector jobs disappointed economists, coming in lower than expected. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) , which tracks financial stocks in the S&P 500 (SPX) , fell 0.8%.

Morgan Stanley (MS) slipped nearly 0.1%, bouncing back from earlier lows. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) rose more than 0.2% in early trading. Citigroup Inc. was up more than 0.8%.

/quotes/zigman/190927/quotes/nls/bac BAC 14.08, +0.18, +1.26% Bank of America Corp.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) jumped more than 1.2%. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) turned positive, up 1.4%, after being in the red in early trading.

President Obama was meeting with the CEOs of Wall Street's biggest banks. The U.S. is in its first government shutdown in 17 years after Republicans and Democrats could not agree to terms of funding the government. The meeting also comes as Washington is getting ready for a fiscal showdown over raising the debt ceiling.

Members of the Financial Services Forum, a group that represents the heads of Wall Street's biggest institutions, will be in attendance., including Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. The group will also meet with Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

Here's the roundup of news on Wall Street:

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is the target of a lawsuit by New York state's top prosecutor, who alleges violations of a mortgage settlement, according a report in the New York Times. Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has accused the largest U.S. mortgage lender of not following the terms of a multibillion-dollar settlement reached in 2012 targeting foreclosure abuses.

Click to Play

Shutdown may not end soon

Senate Republican leaders and Democratic aides send a message: Don't expect the government shutdown to end soon. Photo: Getty.

U.S. home mortgage applications dropped in the past week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The last report shows demand for loans dropped more than refinancing activity.

Seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, slipped 0.4 % in the week ended September 27, according to MBIA.

Third-quarter bank results are scheduled to start Oct. 11 with Wells Fargo & Co. and J.P. Morgan kicking the week off, but warnings from analysts on weak trading revenue, declining mortgage activity and increasing legal costs could put a damper on the results and possibly lead to job cuts in the sector, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

Several analysts have cut earnings estimates in recent weeks. Citigroup., Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs earnings are due out the following week.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Invest In 2014

Warren Buffett has been nothing short of a master dealmaker for the better part of five decades now. Through a disciplined approach that stresses the understanding of a company's fundamental business model, as well as buying and holding businesses, not stocks, over a very long period of time, Buffett has played Wall Street like a violin.

Dating back to 1970, Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A ) (NYSE: BRK-B ) , has not once in 43 years had its five-year average gain in book value per share underperform the average five-year performance of the S&P 500. I can't even begin to describe how phenomenal that is, given the multiple recessions we've endured as a country.

It might just be safe to say that Warren Buffett knows a thing or two about investing and buying undervalued companies. Some of his latest purchases include railroad BNSF, which gives Berkshire exposure to consumer-goods and petroleum shipping, Heinz (through a partnered buyout with 3G Capital), which adds a strong consumer-condiments brand to Buffett's portfolio, and NV Energy, a Las Vegas energy provider that Buffett's energy subsidiary MidAmerican will probably use to expand its alternative-energy platform.

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Invest In 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Supervalu have dropped 8.3% to $6.31 at 2:59 p.m., within spitting distance of Goldman’s $6 target price, while competitors Family Dollar Stores (FDO) has gained 0.2% to $70.16,�Dollar General�(DG) has fallen 0.4% t0 $59.02,�Dollar Tree (DLTR) is off 1% to $59.33 and Wal-Mart (WMT) is little changed at $79.19.
[By Lawrence Meyers]
The finance sector, as mentioned, can make money in many ways. The second-highest growth sector is expected to be consumer discretionary, with a 6.2% increase. When you look at earnings from luxury brands like Tiffany & Co. (TIF), and that the hotel sector continues to do very well, it suggests that those people who are in good financial shape are spending their money. Meanwhile, dollar players like Dollar Tree (DLTR) continue to perform very well, suggesting that folks with less money are spending it on cheaper items.
[By Traders Reserve]
I do believe as Wal-Mart gets hurt, the dollar stores will do a little better ��especially Dollar General (DG), but don�� overlook� Dollar Tree (DLTR). Wall Street is worried about Costco (COST) but I believe it will actually outperform expectations. Costco seems to have figured out how to grow much faster than Wal-Mart and still provide affordable health insurance for most employees.
[By John Maxfield]
If you're anything like me, two things went through your head when you saw this. First, you regret that you missed out on the investment opportunity. Since the end of 2009, shares in all three of these companies, led by Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR ) , have simply trounced the broader market. Even the worst performer of the bunch, Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO ) , beat it by nearly a factor of two.

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Invest In 2014: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Matt Thalman]
Before we hit the Dow losers, let's look at this week's best-performing component. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) , with a gain of 0.77%, was the only Dow stock that rose this past week. As gold, silver, and platinum rise, the value of the mining equipment Caterpillar makes also rises, and if prices can sustain their current levels, we're likely to see increased orders for its machinery as more people try to dig gold out of the ground. �
[By Jeff Reeves]
Heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar�(CAT) has been hit hard by the slowdown in metals and mining this year. CAT stock is already off 7% in 2013, and more declines are in order going forward.
[By Dan Dzombak]
The other big news today has been earnings reports. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) is today's worst Dow stock, down 2.7% after it reported earnings per share of $1.45 -- a full 40% below the prior-year quarter's $2.54 and well short of analyst expectations of $1.71. Revenue came in at $14.6 billion, down 16% from a year ago and below analyst expectations of $14.9 billion. On top of the disappointing earnings, the company also cut its forecast for 2013 EPS from $7 to $6.50 and lowered its revenue guidance from $56 billion-$58 billion to $57 billion-$61 billion. Fool contributor Neha Chamaria recently discussed what investors should look for in Caterpillar's earnings release.

Top Bank Companies To Buy For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Arie Goren]
After running this screen on May 21, 2013, before the markets' open, I discovered the following eight stocks: Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL), Leggett & Platt Inc (LEG), Copa Holdings SA (CPA), RPC Inc. (RES), Tupperware Brands Corp. (TUP), Herbalife Ltd. (HLF), John Wiley & Sons Inc. (JW.A) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW).
[By Eric Volkman]
Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP ) is reaching into its corporate bowl for a fresh payout to shareholders. The company has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.62 per share. This will be paid on July 8 to stockholders of record as of June 19. That amount matches the firm's previous distribution, which was paid in early April. Prior to that, Tupperware Brands was rather less generous, handing out $0.36 per share.

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Invest In 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Advisors' Opinion:

[By WALLSTCHEATSHEET.COM]
Schlumberger is best of breed in its industry, but the industry�� potential might not be as strong as advertised. There is a theory that decreasing energy prices will lead to increased demand, but that�� like saying someone flushed the toilet and then went to the bathroom. The truth is that global demand is on shaky ground, and if it falters, it will lead to a chain reaction that won�� benefit Schlumberger. In a somewhat related matter of importance, Schlumberger�� stock was hit hard during the financial crisis. The fact that it was deemed the financial crisis isn�� important in this case. What�� important is that it was a deflationary environment and Schlumberger couldn�� maintain its strength in that�environment. If the Federal Reserve removed all monetary stimulus, would a deflationary environment present itself once again? Nobody knows for sure, but it�� a possibility. In the meantime, potential rewards outweigh downside risks for Schlumberger. Therefore, Schlumberger is an OUTPERFORM.
[By WWW.DAILYFINANCE.COM]
Alamy HOUSTON -- Halliburton says it lost $18 million in the first quarter, pulled down by $637 million in charges related to its role in the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. But it made money if unusual items are excluded, beating Wall Street expectations. The oil services company's loss amounted to 2 cents a share. That compares with net income of $627 million, or 68 cents a share, a year earlier. Halliburton Co. (HAL), which is in talks to settle claims against it related to the oil spill, said that excluding the charges it posted adjusted earnings of 67 cents a share. That beat the 57 cents that analysts expected. The Houston company, which provides a variety of services for the petroleum industry, is benefiting from a boom in U.S. oil production, which is at the highest level in more than two decades. At the same time, Halliburton's natural gas business has slowed as drillers slowed production due to falling prices for the fuel. Revenue rose slightly to $6.97 billion from $6.87 billion. Analysts expected $6.88 billion. Halliburton shares jumped $1.44, or 3.9 percent, to $38.65 in premarket trading an hour before the market opening. Halliburton is the biggest provider of oil field services in North America, including hydraulic fracturing, a technology that has helped unlock large supplies of oil and natural gas from shale rock formations in the U.S. North American revenue fell 11 percent to $3.71 billion, while operating income tumbled 43 percent to $605 million. Dave Lesar, the company's chairman, president and CEO, said a drop in Halliburton's rig count and pricing pressures in North America were more than offset by the company's growing international business. International revenue increased 21 percent from a year ago. For the full year, Halliburton still expects total international revenue growth in the "low teens," he said. Rival Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), which has a larger international business, said Friday that its revenue climbed in region
[By David Smith]
Similarly, the company's forward dividend yield could stand some boosting, another possibility made more feasible by an acquisitions slowdown. Currently, however, with a forward yield of 0.80%, Varco falls short of such other big oilfield services providers as Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) , with its 1.80% forward yield, or Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI ) , at 1.40%. On that basis, it would constitute a distinct positive to see National Oilwell Varco's own anticipated yield raised to at least 1.00%, a level that would hardly result in an arduous payout for the company.

Monday, November 18, 2013

J.C. Penney hopes to hit the right holiday notes

J.C. Penney wants to carol its way back into the hearts of consumers this holiday season with a new "Jingle More Bells" marketing campaign launching this week.

Penney's holiday strategy focuses on driving traffic into stores and restoring faith in the brand with six straight weeks of promotions – a leap from Johnson's emphasis on everyday low prices. Low prices will be emphasized through music in the "Jingle More Bells" campaign, including the release of a new TV spot every week through the end of December. The spots will feature twists on classic holiday songs to promote in-store sales.

The first spot features a play on "Santa Baby," where carolers urge Santa to "slip a discount under the tree."

Blake Shelton, the JCP Cares ambassador, will perform at the Manhattan Mall store on Dec. 19. The event is a part of the retailer's social media campaign that allows customers to upload a video of themselves singing "Silent Night" to be featured in a virtual holiday performance on the same day.

The retailer hopes to use this strategy to build on an October that saw a 0.9% jump in sales. Stocks also rose to $9.05 a share on Friday. Though the growth is positive it is far from a trend, says Standard & Poor's analyst David Kuntz.

Former CEO Ron Johnson was pushed out in April after his strategy to largely eliminate sales and redesign stores failed, alienating many long-time customers. J.C. Penney has since struggled to regain its customers and its identity.

Best Warren Buffett Stocks To Own For 2014

"The brand and company has been through a lot," says Deb Berman, Penney's senior vice president of marketing. "It's coming from a period of disorientation."

Golden Gate University marketing professor Kit Yarrow says the company's strategies for the holiday season are well thought out. It is important to get the consumers into the holiday mood and the plan seems to do just ! that, she says.

It takes newness to break through to consumers and having multiple TV spots will keep consumers from getting bored. Social media submissions will appeal to a younger demographic, while the carolers will appeal to Penney's base in the stores, Yarrow says.

Although Penney is optimistic for the holiday season, Kuntz says it will be a tough retail season for everyone.

"We think traffic will be weak and characterized by promotional activity," Kuntz says. "It's tough to win customers in the moderate department store sector on a given day and it'll be even tougher given they've alienated customers."

Some past failures are Penney's fault, but many factors now working against the retailer are out of its control, says Ken Nisch, chairman of retail brand and design firm JGA. Mid-tier department stores like Penney are feeling the squeeze from Macy's, Kohl's and Target. This, along with a bleak holiday shopping forecast could mean a rough season for Penney and all retailers.

A win for Penney would mean getting back to neutral and given the company's limited resources, it'll be a slow climb, he says.

Penney should be capitalizing on its tradition and brand loyalty, much like Macy's, Yarrow says. Although she believes its holiday plans are great, she says they need to go even further to get consumers back onboard or risk getting squeezed out of a crowded, competitive retail marketplace.

"Right now, consumers don't see Penney on the top of its game," Yarrow says. "The consumers can smell blood in the water."

Sunday, November 17, 2013

US Airways Could Prosper Without Merger, Analyst Says

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (TheStreet) -- US Airways (LCC) shares were higher in premarket trading Tuesday after an analyst upgraded the stock, saying it is worth buying even if a planned merger with American (AAMRQ) isn't approved.

JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker upgraded both Delta (DAL) and US Airways to outperform, and also raised estimates for both carriers, saying that "firm revenue per available seat mile and retreating oil bode well for 3Q13 earnings." He also said that US Airways and American could form a working relationship, including the move of US Airways from the Star alliance to the Oneworld alliance, even if the Justice Department succeeds in blocking the merger.

Baker ascribed a 50-50 probability to the completion of the merger between US Airways and American. He said he doesn't expect a negotiated settlement, meaning the decision on a merger rests with U.S. District Court Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly, who has scheduled a hearing for Nov.25.

Why 50-50? Because while nearly every single person in the airline industry believes a merger is likely, "when it comes to antitrust experts, we have yet to find any that believe the airlines face anything but a steep, uphill battle, with most citing probabilities below 40%," Baker said. "We agree with the former, but we simply cannot ignore the latter, so let's call it 50-50." That means it is wise to consider Plan B. "While neither (airline) is likely contemplating a Plan B at this time, we can envision an outcome that -- while failing to deliver more than a fraction of the proposed benefit for shareholders, passengers and communities -- nonetheless represents an outcome better than doing nothing or reverting to AMR's original solo plan," Baker said. Besides US Airways' move to Oneworld, the Plan B scenario envisioned by Baker includes some major changes. American senior management -- including CEO Tom Horton -- would be replaced, "satisfying labor's desire for executive changes and assuaging investor concerns over excessive growth." American and US Airways would "pursue a high degree of domestic code-sharing, with Alaska (ALK) potentially dropped as an American partner over time."

Additionally, Baker's Plan B envisions that "US Airways pilots don't get marked to market so costs remain intact." That would come as a shock to the US Airways pilots, both east and west, who have below-market contracts and were due for improvements worth $1.6 billion over six years that would be triggered by a merger.

Plan B brings no cost synergies, Baker said. But it does not require Justice Department approval. "It's not great -- not by a long shot -- but it beats the two airlines sulking and retreating into separate corners," he said. Additionally, he noted that margins at Delta and United (UAL), which already possess the global route networks a merged airline would have, are no better than margins at smaller airlines US Airways, Alaska, Allegiant (ALGT) and Spirit (SAVE) .

"One reason US Airways is successful is that it is focused on being the dominant operator in smaller markets, letting others battle for LAX and NYC dominance, while preferring instead to seek profits in Charlotte and elsewhere," Baker wrote.

Explaining his upgrades, Baker said August RASM exceeded his expectations, September RASM looks similar, oil prices are retreating, Delta has joined the S&P 500 index, and stocks have held up better than anticipated following the surprise Aug. 13 announcement that the Justice Department would sue to block the merger. Also, he said, US Airways' "stand-alone prospects are better than implied by the market -- Delta is trading at roughly 10x 2014E earnings, (with) US Airways at 5x." Baker raised his price target for US Airways to $26 from $18, while raising his rating to overweight from neutral. He raised his price target for Delta to $26 from $22, again raising his rating to overweight from neutral. US Airways closed Monday at $18.07, and was trading at $18.52 in premarket trading. Delta closed Monday at $23.15 and was trading at $23.73 in the premarket. Follow @tedreednc -- Written by Ted Reed in Charlotte, N.C. >To contact the writer of this article, click here: Ted Reed

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Does Wal-Mart Support Higher Prices?

Top 5 Cheap Stocks For 2014

With shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) trading around $79, is WMT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework.

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Wal-Mart operates retail stores in various formats around the world. The company aims to price items at the lowest price every day. Wal-Mart operates in three business segments: the Walmart U.S. segment, the Walmart International segment, and the Sam's Club segment. It manages retail stores, restaurants, discount stores, supermarkets, super centers, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, apparel stores, Sam's Clubs, neighborhood markets, and other small formats, as well as Walmart.com and Samsclub.com. Through its retail channels, Wal-Mart is able to provide a variety of products and services at affordable prices to consumers and companies worldwide.

Wal-Mart reported third-quarter results Thursday morning that showed retailers are still feeling the squeeze of reduced consumer spending. Wal-Mart's same-store sales in the U.S. fell during the quarter, showing that its core business of large stores in rural America is struggling, according to Business Insider. Earnings came in at $1.14 per share, beating expectations by 1 cent. Wal-Mart's revenue of $114.9 billion fell below expectations of $116.8 billion.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Wal-Mart stock has made positive progress in recent quarters. The stock is currently trading near all-time highs and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Wal-Mart is trading above its rising key averages, which signals neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

Source: Thinkorswim

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Wal-Mart options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Wal-Mart Options	13.5%	0%	0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
December Options	Flat	Average
January Options	Flat	Average

As of Thursday, there is average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Wal-Mart’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Wal-Mart look like and, more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	5.56%	5.93%	4.59%	11.14%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	1.66%	1.68%	1.04%	3.86%
Earnings Reaction	0.33%*	-2.6%	-1.7%	1.51%

Wal-Mart has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about Wal-Mart’s recent earnings announcements.

*As of this writing.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Wal-Mart stock done relative to its peers – Target (NYSE:TGT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), and Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) — and sector?

	Wal-Mart	Target	Costco	Kohl’s	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	16.06%	12.38%	25.27%	25.85%	20.89%

Wal-Mart has been a weak relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Wal-Mart is a retail company that provides a variety of products and services to consumers and companies worldwide. The company reported third-quarter results that showed retailers are still feeling the squeeze of reduced consumer spending. The stock has made some progress in recent quarters and is currently trading near all-time highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been increasing. However, investors have had conflicting feelings about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Wal-Mart has been a weak year-to-date performer. Look for Wal-Mart to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Friday, November 15, 2013

The Price is Right for These Smart Money Moves

Popular Posts: 2 Cheap Bank Stocks to Buy Now3 Stocks Backed by 80 Years of Investing Know-How9 Stocks Getting Dumped by Fund Managers Recent Posts: Smart Money Bets Big on Small Banks The Price is Right for These Smart Money Moves 9 Stocks Getting Dumped by Fund Managers View All Posts

The flood of 13F filings has begun in advance of this week's deadline. Among the early filers is Michael Price, the once well-known and widely followed value investor. Price compiled an incredible track record at the Mutual Series Funds before selling the operation to Franklin Templeton (BEN) and then retiring a few years later.

Since then, Price has run MFP Investors — a fund that manages his money as well as a money for a few outside investors. He learned the craft of value investing from one of the founding father of value investing: Max Heine, the founder of the Mutual Shares Fund that Price later managed. Price no longer attracts the media attention he once did, but he is still an extraordinary stock picker, and I steal ideas from him frequently.

Price appears to share my enthusiasm for smaller bank stocks, as he currently own 19 small regional and community banks. He has been buying them consistently over the past few years, and I think he sees the same consolidation wave and shareholder value increase in the future that I do. He added to one position this quarter, buying more shares of Clifton Savings Bank (CSBK), the mutual holding company for the 11-branch bank in northern New Jersey. It looks like the bank trades for 1.9 times book value, but after the second-step conversion process is completed, the shares will trade at a slight discount to book. The bank is in excellent condition with an equity-to-assets ratio of almost 18 and nonperforming assets at just 0.53% of total assets.

Price's new buys in the quarter were Oenok (OKE), Dolby Labs (DLB) and T-Mobile (TMUS). I don't find any of those particularly exciting at current levels, but I'm willing to acknowledge that Michael Price is a lot smarter than I am and probably sees value I am missing in these stocks. What I find much more interesting was that Price was doing a lot more selling than buying in the third quarter.

He started or added to 13 positions while reducing or eliminating 28 positions. Notable reductions include Bank of America (BAC) where he sold 41% of his shares, reduced his holdings of Citigroup (C) by 27% and reduced in his Sandridge Energy (SD) position by 58%. Some of his sales were arbitrage or takeover stakes, but he did a lot more selling than buying in the quarter. This is in line with the recent comments made by several noted investors that it is getting harder to find bargain stocks.

I will leave it to everyone else to follow the big hedge fund stars to see who bought or sold the most shares of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) in the third quarter. I prefer to follow the value types who are not in the day-to-day headlines but have done an outstanding job of making money over long periods of time.

As of this writing, Tim Melvin did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

4 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy This Week

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

LightIn TheBox

LightIn TheBox (LITB) is a global online retail company that delivers products directly to consumers globally. This stock closed up 8.7% to $8.75 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $8.00-$8.90

52-Week Range: $7.63-$23.38

Tuesday's Volume: 627,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 983,366

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

From a technical perspective, LITB spiked sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $7.63 with decent upside volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last month and change, with shares dropping from its high of $12.86 to its recent low of $7.63. During that move, shares of LITB have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of LITB have now started to come off that low of $7.63 and broke out on Monday above some near-term overhead resistance at $8.45. This move could be signaling that downside volatility for LITB could be over in the short-term.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in LITB as long as it's trending above Tuesday's low of $8 or above more near-term support at $7.63 and then once it sustains a move or close above Tuesday's high of $8.90 to more resistance at $9.25 with volume that hits near or above 983,366 shares. If we get that move soon, then LITB will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels $10 to its 50-day moving average of $10.77. If those levels get taken out with volume, then LITB could even hit $12 to $12.50.

GSE Holding

GSE Holding (GSE) provides geosynthetic containment solutions for environmental protection and confinement applications. This stock closed up 5.4% to $2.89 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $2.75-$2.91

52-Week Range: $1.92-$8.43

Tuesday's Volume: 100,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 183,489

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

Top Financial Stocks To Invest In 2014

From a technical perspective, GSE ripped higher here right above some near-term support at $2.66 and above its 50-day moving average of $2.45 with lighter-than-average volume. This move is starting to push shares of GSE within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if GSE manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $3 to $3.27 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GSE as long as it's trending above $2.66 or above its 50-day at $2.45 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 183,489 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then GSE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $4. Any high-volume move above $4 to $4.20 will then give GSE a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone from August that started at $5.50.

Monster Worldwide

Monster Worldwide (MWW) provides global online employment solutions. This stock closed up 4.9% to $5.35 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $5.04-$5.39

52-Week Range: $4.02-$6.40

Tuesday's Volume: 3.01 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.50 million

From a technical perspective, MWW spiked higher here right above its 200-day moving average of $4.92 with above-average volume. This stock recently gapped sharply higher from under $4.40 to $5.41 with heavy upside volume. Shares of MWW are now quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That breakout will hit if MWW manages to take out Tuesday's high of $5.39 to more resistance at $5.41 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MWW as long as it's trending above its 200-day at $4.92 or above its gap down day low of $4.80 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 2.50 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then MWW will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $6.01 to its 52-week high at $6.40. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give MWW a chance to tag $7.

InnerWorkings

InnerWorkings (INWK) is a provider of managed print and promotional procurement solutions to corporate clients across a range of industries. This stock closed up 1.5% to $6.10 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $5.95-$6.13

52-Week Range: $5.54-$15.80

Tuesday's Volume: 1.31 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 424,352

From a technical perspective, INWK trended modestly higher here with strong upside volume. This stock recently gapped down sharply from $9.75 to its low of $5.54 with heavy downside volume. Following that move, shares of INWK have now started to rebound and move within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if INWK manages to take out Tuesday's high of $6.13 to its gap down day high of $6.50 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in INWK as long as it's trending above that recent low of $5.54 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 424,352 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then INWK will set up to re-fill some of that previous gap down zone that started at $9.75.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Top 5 Blue Chip Stocks For 2014

The market got a helping hand from Europe -- of all places -- today, while positive news on the domestic front combined to send stocks higher. The European Central Bank's decision to cut rates to historic lows in just a few days put equities on firmer ground, coupled with rising consumer spending and a jump in real estate sales. When all was said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) ended up 106 points, or 0.7%, at 14,818.

But as much as those macroeconomic developments were responsible for the rise of the blue chips, it was tech stocks that really lifted the index. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ ) was one notable beneficiary of tech's popularity surge Monday, adding 2.6%. Since HP has seen its stock slip at the expense of a move to tablets from PCs, today's report showing an uptick in consumer spending doesn't hurt things.�

Although also heavily reliant on the declining PC market, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) tacked on 2.6% as well. While Microsoft's Surface tablet has had some trouble gaining traction and its new Windows 8 operating system hasn't blown anybody away, the company is making legitimate progress in the cloud computing landscape. Its Azure business division just crossed the $1 billion annual sales mark, with subscriptions to its service rising nearly 50% in the last six months alone.

Top 5 Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: Visa Inc.(V)

Visa Inc., a payments technology company, engages in the operation of retail electronic payments network worldwide. It facilitates commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses, and government entities. The company owns and operates VisaNet, a global processing platform that provides transaction processing services. It also offers a range of payments platforms, which enable credit, charge, deferred debit, debit, and prepaid payments, as well as cash access for consumers, businesses, and government entities. The company provides its payment platforms under the Visa, Visa Electron, PLUS, and Interlink brand names. In addition, it offers value-added services, including risk management, issuer processing, loyalty, dispute management, value-added information, and CyberSource-branded services. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Alcoa have jumped 4.3% to $8.28 today at 1:26 p.m, which would have made it the Dow’s best performer today instead of AT&T (T) and its 2.8% gain. Still it’s hard to complain too much today as the Dow’s three new members are having solid, if not extraordinary, days. Nike (NKE) has jumped 1.3% after its CEO told analysts that his company could have $30 billion of sales in 2015 and $36 billion by 2017. Goldman Sachs (GS), meanwhile, has gained 1.3% to $155.04 and Visa (V) has advanced 0.8% to $183.98.
[By Chris Hill]
Boston Beer (NYSE: SAM ) reports a 20% increase in first-quarter revenue, but shares fall on weaker-than-expected profits. Visa (NYSE: V ) hits an all-time high in the wake of strong earnings and raised guidance. General Motors (NYSE: GM ) rises on gains in its European business. And Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW ) reports a 33% jump in quarterly profits as it considers selling the company.
[By Jonas Elmerraji]
You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out what's going on in shares of Visa (V) right now. The preeminent payment network is currently bouncing higher in a well-defined uptrend that's propelled shares since the start of 2013. This week, with shares testing that trendline support level for an eighth time, we're coming up on an ideal time to be a buyer.

But don't buy shares of Visa anticipating a move higher. Instead, wait for the bounce. Buying off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: it's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). And by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring the Visa can actually still catch a bid along that line.

Remember, trendlines do eventually fail, and when this one does, you don't want to be holding the bag. We could very well get our bounce today in Visa. If you decide to buy, keep a tight stop in place.

Top 5 Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: McDonald's Corporation(MCD)

McDonald?s Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a worldwide foodservice retailer. It franchises and operates McDonald?s restaurants that offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages. As of December 31, 2009, the company operated 32,478 restaurants in 117 countries, of which 26,216 were operated by franchisees; and 6,262 were operated by the company. McDonald?s Corporation was founded in 1948 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Eric Parnell]
After taking these risks into consideration, maintaining an allocation to stocks remains worthwhile in such an environment. Given the volatility that often accompanies the turbulent May to October period, it may offer some particularly good trading opportunities as either broader markets or specific securities experience steep corrections followed by swift rallies. But risks must be monitored closely and holdings should be viewed with a potentially shorter time horizon depending on how events unfold in the coming months. Emphasizing stocks that exhibit quality, low volatility, value and current income that are also not technically overbought provides an additional way to control risk in the current environment. This includes allocations such as the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) and high quality individual names such as Exxon Mobil (XOM), International Business Machines (IBM), McDonald's (MCD), General Electric (GE) and Oracle (ORCL). It should be noted that IBM, General Electric and Oracle were all positions that were scooped up following recent sharp pullbacks.
[By DailyFinance Staff]
• Ever since Steve Ballmer announced that he'd be leaving his post as CEO of Microsoft (MSFT) within the next year, speculation has been rampant about who will take his place. The early favorite among the chattering class was ex-Nokia chief Stephen Elop, who has a history with Microsoft and is coming back to Redmond thanks to its purchase of Nokia's (NOK) phone business. But recently, Ford (F) CEO Alan Mulally has jumped to the top of the list. Mulally's no tech specialist, but he is a turnaround artist, which is exactly what the stagnant tech giant needs. • On the potential government shutdown, as of Friday morning, there's no visible movement on either side. The Senate is preparing to pass a stopgap measure that would keep the lights on for another 6 weeks, while House Republicans continue to insist they won't back down on their insistence that Democrats defund the Affordable Care Act. If nobody blinks before Tuesday, the shutdown begins. Stay tuned ... • One of the things we love about Martha Stewart is that she exemplifies a life most of us can only dream of -- with the perfectly decorated house, the exquisitely crafted meals, etc. Well, in some ways, Martha's just like us. She's been tweeting recently about her travails with a broken iPad. Of course, when it's who has gadget drama, the tweets go viral. • Out here in the real economy of the middle class, it sometimes feels like things aren't getting better, or if they are, it's not happening fast enough. We know it. We feel it too. But here's something to cheer you up: 19 charts that will restore your faith in the global economy. • Nike (NKE) just did it on the earnings front Thursday -- earnings soared by 38 percent last quarter, beating the Street's expectations. The only place where Nike isn't winning? China. • McDonald's (MCD), where everyone goes for a healthy lunch, says it will now allow customers to replace the fries in their value meals with a side salad, fr
[By Alex Dumortier, CFA]
GE vs. McDonald's on growth
Two Dow bellwethers, General Electric (NYSE: GE ) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ) , have reported results for the first quarter, producing contrary data points with regard to global growth.
[By Andrew Marder]
Unlike J. Crew and Tory Burch, the reason I want in on Five Guys is for the beautiful simplicity of the business. Murrell now oversees a business that should generate over $1 billion in revenue in 2013. While the company is still far short of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ) $6.6 billion, Five Guys seems to be managing a feat that McDonald's has failed at over the last few quarters: growth.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Own Right Now: Philip Morris International Inc(PM)

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products in markets outside of the United States. Its international product brand line comprises Marlboro, Merit, Parliament, Virginia Slims, L&M, Chesterfield, Bond Street, Lark, Muratti, Next, Philip Morris, and Red & White. The company also offers its products under the A Mild, Dji Sam Soe, and A Hijau in Indonesia; Diana in Italy; Optima and Apollo-Soyuz in the Russian Federation; Morven Gold in Pakistan; Boston in Colombia; Belmont, Canadian Classics, and Number 7 in Canada; Best and Classic in Serbia; f6 in Germany; Delicados in Mexico; Assos in Greece; and Petra in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. It operates primarily in the European Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. The company is based in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Maxx Chatsko]
However, you would be hard-pressed to find any connection between falling smoking prevalence and share performance at Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI ) , Lorriland (NYSE: LO ) , Phillip Morris (NYSE: PM ) , and Altria (NYSE: MO ) . These companies are some of the best performers in the past decade. In fact, Altria is the best-performing stock of the last half-century!
[By Rupert Hargreaves]
After a�record�first half, tobacco stocks are now starting to pull back as the high-yield sector of the market is sold-off. During the first six and a half months of the year, Altria (NYSE: MO ) matched the S&P 500 with gains of 17.5%, while�Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI ) �climbed 24% and Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM ) �advanced�7.3%, all excluding dividends (the S&P 500 gained 18% over the same period). However, since the recent sell-off began, all three companies have wiped out most of their gains so far this year.��
[By Diane Alter]
Dividend Stocks That Increased Payout in September
Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) announced a 14.8%, or $0.12 per share, increase to its semiannual dividend. The management consulting firm will now pay a semiannual dividend of $0.93. Shares yield 2.53%. Agruim Inc. (NYSE: AGU) boosted its dividend by $1.00 per share to a total dividend of $3.00 on an annualized basis. Shares of the global retailer of agricultural products now sprout a 3.54% yield. Air Industries Group Inc. (NYSE: AIRI) doubled its dividend to $0.125 per share. The maker of airplane and helicopter parts now floats a lofty yield of 6.6%. Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (NYSE: ARE) upped its dividend 4.6% to $0.68 per quarter for a yield of 4.21%. Banner Corp. (Nasdaq: BANR) boosted its quarterly dividend 25% to $0.15 per share. The parent company of Banner and Islander Bank serves the Pacific Northwest region. Brady Corp. (NYSE: BRC) lifted its quarterly dividend 2.6% to $0.78 per share. It was the 28th straight dividend increase from the identification solutions company. Shares yield 2.57%. Campbell Soup Co. (NSE: CPB) raised its quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share, up from $0.29. The company last raised its dividend in November 2010. Shares yield a hearty 3.06%. CLARCOR Inc. (NYSE: CLC) raised its quarterly dividend 26% to $0.17 per share. It's the largest percentage increase from the Tennessee-based diversified marketer of mobile filtration and packaging products in the last 20 years, and it continues the company's consecutive streak of increasing dividends for the last 30 years. Franklin Resources Inc. (NYSE: BEN) boosted its quarterly dividend 2.6% to $0.10 per share. Frisch's Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: FRS) increased its quarterly dividend 12.5% to $0.18. Shares yield 3.10% The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: GT), in a move that suggests good times are ahead, reinstated its dividend at $0.05 per share. Good
[By Laura Brodbeck]
Thursday
Earnings Expected From: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH), Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), PrivateBancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: PVTB), PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE: PPG), Philip Morris International Inc (NYSE: PM), Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK), Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU), Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) Economic Releases Expected: Chinese GDP, Chinese industrial production, Chinese retail sales, US industrial production, US housing starts, US building permits
Friday

Top 5 Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: Chevron Corporation(CVX)

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy operations worldwide. It operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment involves in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as holds interest in a gas-to-liquids project. The Downstream segment engages in the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products primarily under the Chevron, Texaco, and Caltex brand names; transportation of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacture and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. It a lso produces and markets coal and molybdenum; and holds interests in 13 power assets with a total operating capacity of approximately 3,100 megawatts, as well as involves in cash management and debt financing activities, insurance operations, real estate activities, energy services, and alternative fuels and technology business. Chevron Corporation has a joint venture agreement with China National Petroleum Corporation. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corp. and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Alyssa Oursler]
If you’re looking to dig up a solid dividend, look no further than oil and gas giant Chevron (CVX). The Dependable Dividend stock has been paying a dividend for an jaw-dropping 101 years, and has increased that payout by over 185% in the past decade alone.

Top 5 Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: Apple Inc.(AAPL)

Apple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, mobile communication and media devices, and portable digital music players, as well as sells related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications worldwide. The company sells its products worldwide through its online stores, retail stores, direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, it sells third-party Mac, iPhone, iPad, and iPod compatible products, including application software, printers, storage devices, speakers, headphones, and other accessories and peripherals through its online and retail stores; and digital content and applications through the iTunes Store. The company sells its products to consumer, small and mid-sized business, education, enterprise, government, and creative markets. As of September 25, 2010, it had 317 retail stores, including 233 stores in the United States and 84 stores internationally. The company, formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc., was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Sam Mattera]
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) makes a number of apps for Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL ) iOS. Some of them, including Google Maps, YouTube, and Google Search, are among the most commonly downloaded.
[By Monica Wolfe]
Apple (AAPL)
Einhorn�� largest holding is in Apple. The guru currently holds 2,397,706 shares, representing 0.26% of the company�� shares outstanding and a massive 17.8% of his total portfolio.
[By George Kesarios]
And no one really knows how much money Microsoft has spent trying (unsuccessfully so far) to establish WP8 as an Android and Apple (AAPL) iOS alternative. And judging from the fact that Nokia (NOK) is essentially the only WP8 device maker, that Microsoft's tablet strategy has essentially flopped, and that everyone is making money in the devices space except Microsoft, a full fledged and established ecosystem costs a lot of money.
[By Chris Hill]
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) reported better-than-expected earnings on Tuesday, and announced a $50-billion increase in its share buyback program. But bears pointed to Apple's shrinking margins and the lack of guidance on when the next great product will be released. In this installment of Investor Beat, our analysts discuss the future of Apple.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Is Boeing Ready to Continue Itâ€™s Bull Run?

With shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA) trading around $132, is BA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Boeing is an aerospace company. It focuses primarily on engineering, information technology, research and development, test and evaluation, technology strategy development, environmental remediation management, and intellectual property management. The company operates in five segments: Commercial Airplanes, Boeing Military Aircraft, Network & Space Systems, Global Services & Support, and Boeing Capital Corp.

Boeing is working with the Washington government and labor unions to decide whether the production of its 777 jet will take place in the state or not. The state has offered Boeing a $8.7 billion package of incentives, including tax breaks and workforce support, according to the Wall Street Journal, in an attempt to convince Boeing to keep production of the jets local. Boeing's labor unions, however, are reportedly unhappy about the contract offered to them. Boeing said that if the unions don't approve the contract by Wednesday, the company will start considering other venues for the 777′s production.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Boeing stock has been surging higher in recent quarters. The stock is currently trading near all time high prices and looks like it may need time to consolidate before heading higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Boeing is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Boeing options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Boeing Options	23.66%	20%	18%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
December Options	Flat	Average
January Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a smallt amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Boeing’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Boeing look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	11.85%	11.02%	18.03%	-30.91%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	10.61%	9.05%	-2.53%	14.05%
Earnings Reaction	5.33%	-0.77%	3.00%	1.27%

Boeing has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Boeing’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Boeing stock done relative to its peers, Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE:SPR), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), and sector?

	Boeing	Lockheed Martin	Sprint Aerosystems	Northrop Grumman	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	76.09%	48.11%	72.60%	62.71%	65.87%

Boeing has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Boeing is an aerospace company and provider of aircrafts and related products and services to corporations and governments worldwide. The company is working with the Washington government and labor unions to decide whether the production of its 777 jet will take place in the state or not. The stock has been surging higher and is now trading near all time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have increased, leaving investors happy. Relative to its peers and sector, Boeing has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Boeing to OUTPERFORM.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Understanding The Consumer Confidence Index

Imagine that you are talking with your neighbor in your backyard, and you mention that you and your wife are shopping for a new car, you are getting ready to refinance your house and your wife's brother recently lost his job. Your neighbor tells you he was recently promoted, his wife is starting a business and his daughter just bought a new computer. What kind of analysis about the health of the U.S. economy could an economist make based on your backyard conversation? Well, that depends on what the conversation suggests about consumer confidence.

The mention of recent or upcoming purchases of a computer and a car suggests strong consumer demand. Your plan to refinance your home is a positive sign for the future, implying that you are confident in your ability to meet future mortgage payments. The refinancing suggests also the possibility of lower mortgage payments, which could mean an increase in your discretionary income. Your neighbor's promotion and the start of his wife's new business are also positive economic signs. The only negative reference during the conversation was the mention of one person who recently lost a job. But from the other information exchanged between you and your neighbor, the economist might conclude that consumer confidence is high. That is good news for the economy because, on average, consumers are responsible for two-thirds of the nation's economic activity, or the gross domestic product (GDP).

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers (like you and me) are expressing through their activities of saving and spending. The CCI is prepared by the Conference Board and was first calculated in 1985. In that year, the result of the index was arbitrarily set to 100, representing the index's benchmark. This value is adjusted monthly based on results of a household survey of consumers' opinions on current conditions and future economic expectations. Opinions on current conditions make up 40% of the index, with expectations of future conditions comprising the remaining 60%.

In the glossary on its website, the Conference Board defines the Consumer Confidence Survey as "a monthly report detailing consumer attitudes and buying intentions, with data available by age, income and region." In the most simplistic terms, when their confidence is trending up, consumers spend money, indicating a healthy economy. When confidence is trending down, consumers are saving more than they are spending, indicating the economy is in trouble. The idea is that the more confident people feel about the stability of their incomes, the more likely they are to make purchases.

The Survey
Each month the Conference Board surveys 5,000 U.S. households. The survey consists of five questions that ask the respondents' opinions about the following:

Current business conditions. Business conditions for the next six months. Current employment conditions. Employment conditions for the next six months. Total family income for the next six months. Survey participants are asked to answer each question as "positive," "negative" or "neutral." The results from the Consumer Confidence Survey are released on the last Tuesday of each month at 10am EST.

The Calculations
Once the data has been gathered, a portion known as the "relative value" is separately calculated for each question; each question's positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses. The relative value for each question is then compared against each relative value from 1985, which is set as the benchmark because 1985 is the first year the index was calculated. This comparison of the relative values results in an "index value" for each question.

The index values for all five questions are then averaged together to form the Consumer Confidence Index. The average of index values for questions one and three form the Present Situation Index; and the average of index values for questions two, four and five form the Expectations Index. The data is calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the country's nine census regions.

How the Data is Used
Manufacturers, retailers, banks and the government monitor changes in the CCI to factor in the data in their decision-making processes. While index changes of less than 5% are often dismissed as inconsequential, moves of 5% or more often indicate a change in the economy's direction. A month-on-month decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to secure and retain good jobs. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Manufacturers may pare down inventories to reduce overhead and/or delay investing in new projects and facilities. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease in lending activity, mortgage applications and credit card use.

When faced with a down-trending index, the government has a variety of options, such as issuing a tax rebate or taking other fiscal or monetary action to stimulate the economy. Conversely, a rising trend in consumer confidence indicates improvements in consumer buying patterns. Manufacturers can increase production and hiring. Banks can expect increased demand for credit. Builders can prepare for a rise in home construction and government can anticipate improved tax revenues based on the consumer spending increase.

Lagging Perspective
The next time you hear the results from the latest Consumer Confidence Survey, keep in mind that economists view consumer confidence as a lagging indicator, which responds only after the overall economy has already changed. The explanation for this delayed CCI reaction is that it takes time for consumers to recover from and respond to economic events. The importance of a lagging indicator is that it confirms that a pattern is occurring. So, an increase in spending today may reflect the results of an economy that recovered a few months ago. Conversely, a decrease in spending today may confirm an ongoing recession.

Conclusion
Since consumer spending is so important to the nation's financial health, the Consumer Confidence Index is one of the most accurate and closely watched economic indicators. The index is based on a survey of five questions posed to 5,000 households, measuring their optimism on the economy's health. The CCI, however, is a lagging indicator, so whatever the survey says, remember that it doesn't tell us what is going to happen, but what has happened and if it can be expected to continue.